Predict. Control. Cure.

Exploring the genetic and ecological factors driving antibiotic resistance — and pioneering new technologies to design effective, evolution-inspired therapeutic strategies.

Kyle J. Card, Ph.D. · HHMI Hanna H. Gray Postdoctoral Fellow

begin the climb

Can we predict and control evolution?

I am dedicated to understanding and combating antibiotic resistance. My research combines experimental evolution, functional genomics, and computational modeling to identify the genetic and environmental factors that drive resistance. By integrating these approaches, I aim to develop innovative strategies to predict and guide the evolutionary trajectories of pathogens, ultimately improving treatment outcomes.

Portrait of Kyle J. Card

I am a disabled scientist born with a rare neurological condition called Moebius syndrome, which affects the muscles controlling facial expressions and eye movement. I also have several limb differences. Although my disabilities pose challenges, my identity as a disabled person has enriched my academic life in many ways. Through my lived experiences, I appreciate that, despite our differences, our curiosity about the natural world binds us together, each of us has a unique story that should be respected, and we all deserve a voice in science.

I am committed to creating and maintaining an environment in which all are welcome and respected — one that is inclusive of race, gender, faith, sexual orientation, ability, and socioeconomic status.

Limiting resistance in the clinic.

Imagine a scenario where a clinician strategically uses existing antibiotics to prevent or reverse drug resistance in an infection. This approach should be possible by exploiting drug tradeoffs in which the evolution of resistance to one therapy increases susceptibility to others. They would only need to alternate to one of these other drugs at the appropriate time.

Isometric genotype space: adaptive walks climb to the resistant AB peak under Drug 1. The same AB genotype sits in a valley under Drug 2 — increased susceptibility, i.e. collateral sensitivity.

However, interactions between mutations and their genetic backgrounds can open new adaptive routes or restrict others, challenging our ability to predict in which direction a population will evolve. We must, therefore, comprehensively understand how these interactions shape resistance evolution to design effective treatment strategies.

Both single mutations increase resistance under Drug 1. Under Drug 2, only one path stays resistant — chance in the first drug decides the collateral outcome.

History matters.

As an HHMI Gilliam Fellow, I investigated how a bacterium's prior history influences its ability to evolve antibiotic resistance. Using E. coli strains from the Long-Term Evolution Experiment, we found that genomic differences between lines can unpredictably alter resistance and channel evolution down particular mutational pathways.

Although this work implicates genetic interactions in our ability to forecast resistance evolution, it is insufficient to focus solely on model organisms. We must systematically investigate these relationships in pathogens — bridging the divide between bench and bedside.

From model systems to pathogens.

As an HHMI Hanna H. Gray Fellow, I explored drug tradeoffs in S. aureus. We discovered that this opportunistic pathogen followed at least two distinct adaptive pathways as it evolved vancomycin resistance. These separate paths led to contrasting, yet predictable sensitivities to second-line antibiotics. To account for this uncertainty, we developed a framework called the Collateral Response Score (CRS) to provide a probabilistic forecast of how past antibiotic exposure might affect future treatment outcomes.

The Card Lab

Where persistence meets resistance.

We established that a pathogen's evolutionary history is key to forecasting its adaptability and therapeutic responses. However, evolution is context-dependent. The selective pressures inside a flask are vastly different from those inside the complex, dynamic environment of the human body, where evolution occurs. To develop effective, evolution-informed therapies, we must bridge the gap between reductionist lab experiments and the clinical reality of infections.

My laboratory will pioneer the use of organ-chip technology to overcome this challenge. By integrating experimental evolution in these high-fidelity systems with functional genomics and phenotypic screens, we will dissect the molecular and evolutionary mechanisms of pathogen adaptation in real-time — creating a framework to predict and ultimately steer the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. We will focus on chronic P. aeruginosa infections in cystic fibrosis, an area with an unmet clinical need and an ideal model system for studying within-host evolution.

The Card Lab

Evolution-on-a-Chip.

A graphical abstract
Evolution-on-a-Chip A cystic-fibrosis airway-on-a-chip feeds a five-step program: seed, pressure, evolve, read out, and forecast — predicting and steering the evolution of antibiotic resistance. airway epithelium · CF mucus · air–liquid interface vascular perfusion P. aeruginosa 01 · Seed

Establish P. aeruginosa in the CF airway chip

02 · Pressure

Apply clinically realistic antibiotic selection

03 · Evolve

Experimental evolution in within-host conditions

04 · Read out

Functional genomics & phenotypic screens

05 · Forecast

Predict and steer resistance

Susceptibility tests are snapshots in time that inform clinicians about whether an antibiotic works today. They cannot provide information about how infections evolve once treatment begins. By evolving P. aeruginosa within a living model of the cystic fibrosis airway, we will observe and track resistance and its collateral consequences as they emerge, rather than infer them from a single endpoint. Acting on that knowledge means scoring the collateral response — its direction, and how confidently we can call it.

A 96-well broth microdilution plate held in a gloved hand — the assay used to measure antibiotic susceptibility.

The Card Lab · interactive

Will the next drug still work?

When a pathogen evolves resistance to one antibiotic, its susceptibility to others can change. The Collateral Response Score captures the direction of that change (its sign) and its predictability (its magnitude).

Live CRS calculator

See how the CRS is calculated. Each dot below is a replicate population, evolved separately and measured against a second drug. Drag the dots — or focus one and press — and watch the score respond. Notice that a given score can arise in two very different ways: when populations are split between resistance and sensitivity, or when there is consistent change across replicates. Toggle between the Worked Example and Full Agreement presets to observe this distinction.

+10−1collateral resistance ↑↓ collateral sensitivitylog₂ relative MIC

Collateral Response Score (CRS)

−1 sensitivity0 uncertain+1 resistance+0.50
Replicate outcomes
Cross-resistance3
Collateral sensitivity1
No change0

Leaning predictable collateral resistance.

3 of 4 cross-resistant, 1 collaterally sensitive, 0 unchanged. CRS +0.50. Leaning predictable collateral resistance.

Replicates
4
Try a preset

Pathway collateral profile

The same drug, two different outcomes. A population may evolve antibiotic resistance through different genetic pathways. Its collateral response to other drugs can change depending on which route the population takes. Toggle between two evolutionary pathways below and watch the collateral profile invert across several second-line drugs: knowing how resistance evolved is often as useful as knowing that it evolved.

Pathway 1

Drug A−0.72
Drug B+0.58
Drug C−0.45
Drug D+0.18
Drug E−0.83
Drug F+0.40

Pathway 2

Drug A+0.61
Drug B−0.70
Drug C+0.38
Drug D−0.30
Drug E+0.69
Drug F−0.52

CRS as a distribution

A single number can hide how sure we really are. Each CRS value is an estimate, not a verdict, because it is drawn from a limited sample of replicates that could have landed differently by chance. Resampling gives a distribution, with its width providing actionable information: narrow and far from zero is a confident call; wide, or straddling zero, means a clinician genuinely cannot say which way evolution will go. The shape of the distribution below is often more informative than the number itself.

Confident — narrow, far from zero
−1 sensitivity0+1 resistance−0.72

Narrow and far from zero — a confident, actionable prediction.

Uncertain — wide, straddling zero
−1 sensitivity0+1 resistance+0.18

Wide and straddling zero — genuinely uncertain. We can't call the direction.

CRS across contexts

Predictability isn't fixed; it depends on the environmental context in which evolution happens. In the preceding examples, the CRS and its distributions were measured in a simplified environment. However, a bacterium evolving inside an inflamed human airway faces different selective pressures than one evolving in a flask. Thus, a collateral response that looks reliable in one setting may become far less certain in another. This is the open question motivating the Evolution-on-a-Chip platform. Drag the marker — or focus it and press — to see, conceptually, how context could reshape what we think we know.

Environment: Lab media → Airway-on-chipInflammation: Low → High−0.700.00

Lab media · low inflammation → CRS −0.70 — a confident, actionable call.

Airway-on-chip · high inflammation → CRS 0.00 — predictability collapses.

One would confidently conclude that a population is collaterally sensitive to Drug A in lab media (CRS −0.70). However, as the environment becomes more host-like and inflamed, that confidence drifts toward zero. Using the Evolution-on-a-Chip platform, in which host-like microenvironments are monitored via real-time sensors, we will investigate whether and how environmental context reshapes CRS.

The climbers.

The team of talented researchers making the science happen.

  • Justin Creary, Ph.D. Student

    Justin Creary

    Ph.D. Student · CWRU

    Justin is investigating how prior evolutionary history under varying antibiotic concentrations affects the ability of pathogens to evolve resistance to clinically relevant second-line drugs.

  • Shiva Ayyar, Master's Student

    Shiva Ayyar

    Master's Student · CWRU

    Shiva is applying a 'coupon collector' framework to genomic data from our PNAS S. aureus study, exploring how idiosyncratic epistasis — where a mutation's effect depends on specific prior mutations, not just overall fitness — shapes how much of the adaptive landscape a population explores.

  • Josh Nworie, Postbaccalaureate

    Josh Nworie

    Postbaccalaureate

    Josh is examining how the Collateral Response Score (CRS) — derived in our PNAS study — changes across different clinical backgrounds and environmental contexts.

  • Amira Stocks, Undergraduate

    Amira Stocks

    Undergraduate · CWRU

    Amira is investigating the impact of biofilm formation on the evolutionary trajectories of antibiotic resistance and how these pathways differ across varying backgrounds and drug concentrations.

  • Brandon Kakuda, Undergraduate

    Brandon Kakuda

    Undergraduate · CWRU

    Brandon is asking how selection strength and background impact the evolution of antibiotic resistance and subsequent drug tradeoffs.

  • Rohan Desai, Undergraduate

    Rohan Desai

    Undergraduate · Vanderbilt

    Rohan is working remotely with our group to write the analysis pipeline for several projects.

  • Drew Sager, Undergraduate

    Drew Sager

    Undergraduate · University of Notre Dame

    Drew is a visiting summer student working with the team performing antibiotic time-kill assays and experimental evolution.

  • Aryan Agarwal, High School Student

    Aryan Agarwal

    High School Student

    Aryan is using genomic data from our PNAS S. aureus study to derive a 'heterogeneity score,' and assessing whether this metric correlates with particular drug tradeoffs.

Get in touch.

cardkyle1@gmail.com

Cleveland Clinic Research · Department of Genomic Sciences and Systems Biology
2111 E. 96th Street NE6, Cleveland, OH 44106

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